Tag: When will the euro start to break up?

The Euro’s Existential Crisis

Extract from Chapter 11, ‘The Euro’s Existential Crisis’, in ‘The Golden Guinea. The International Financial Crisis, 2007-2014: Causes, Consequences and Cures’ (2012). Final section, ‘The Long Goodbye: Requiem for the Euro’. “The inevitable conclusion is that the Euro cannot survive indefinitely in its current form…..Rigidly fixing national currencies to a single currency at an overvalued …

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Greek Tourism VAT and Greece’s future in the Eurozone

An article in today’s Times on Greek VAT on hospitality services entiled ‘Tourists will pay the price the Greek surrender on VAT’ reports that the rate of VAT on restaurants in Greece is likely to increase from 13% to 23%, while for hotels the rate will increase from 6.5% to 23% as part of a …

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Chronicle of a death foretold. Five prophecies fulfilled and one yet to come to pass.

“The only relevant test of the validity of an hypothesis is comparison of its prediction with experience.” [Milton Friedman “The Methodology of Positive Economics” (1953)]. Five predictions of The Golden Guinea: Prediction 1: The Euro will inflict great economic damage on the nations that adopt it. “The case put by supporters of the Euro for …

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Kondratieff, Schumpeter and the Outlook for 2015

Thirty years ago, my book The Age of illusions (1983) contained an exposition of the long waves in economic life, first identified by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff during the 1920s. Kondratieff’s thesis was that long waves lasting approximately half a century each occur in the economic activity of capitalist economies. These waves have two …

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Sad Cyprus

As banks in Cyprus reopen for business after 10 days, it would appear that international currency and securities markets have taken the latest Eurozone crisis in their stride – “a tempest in a teacup” to quote Jamie Dimon on another occasion. But just as Mr Dimon’s observation failed to sweep JP Morgan’s problems under the …

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The longer term consequences of the Cypriot banking crisis

As the Cypriot banking fiasco stumbles towards a resolution, some financial commentators have noted the comparatively modest impact it has had on bond markets elsewhere in the Eurozone. The conclusion they draw is that the situation in Cyprus poses no systemic threat to the euro and, once their banks reopen, things will continue much as …

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How long can Cyprus stay in the Eurozone?

The decision of the Government of Cyprus to impose a one-off levy of up to 10% on Cypriot bank deposits has sent shock waves across Europe. When Mario Draghi announced last year that the European Central Bank was committed to do everything in its power to stabilise the single currency, it was widely assumed that …

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The International Economic Outlook for 2013

As 2012 draws to a close, the financial press is dominated by the impending US “fiscal cliff”.  What seems remarkable in this age of 24/7 rolling news is that the crisis seems to have crept up on us without warning. Yet it was completely foreseeable. What is even more remarkable is that I have yet to read …

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Suspicious Minds – Is Mario Draghi leading the ECB into a Trap?

We’re caught in a trap I can’t walk out – Because I love you too much baby.   Elvis singing an anguished melody to a beloved partner with whom he is entangled in a difficult relationship? Or Mario Draghi serenading the euro? I was reminded about the lyrics of the classic Number One by an …

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