Tag: Quantitative easing

Kondratieff, Schumpeter and the Outlook for 2015

Thirty years ago, my book The Age of illusions (1983) contained an exposition of the long waves in economic life, first identified by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff during the 1920s. Kondratieff’s thesis was that long waves lasting approximately half a century each occur in the economic activity of capitalist economies. These waves have two …

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Are Sterling Bond Prices in a Bubble?

The news that Coutts, the private bank for high net worth clients, has just warned its clients against investing in high yield bonds brought to mind the analysis of a paper published many years ago in an Italian academic journal (“Dilemmas in Development Banking”, Savings and Development, Milan, 1985). Coutts is warning its clients against …

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QE and the Downgrade of Britain’s Sovereign Debt

The news that Britain’s sovereign debt has been downgraded comes as no surprise to those of us who have followed the Bank of England’s monetary policies over recent years with growing bewilderment. The job of a Central Bank is to maintain monetary stability. It is not to print money. It is not to manipulate the …

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An “Expensive Experiment” – An End to QE in the UK?

Congratulations to the Treasury Accounts Committee, which in a trenchant critique has condemned quantitative easing as an “expensive experiment” which has failed to deliver any of its alleged benefits or to stimulate economic growth. It has resulted instead only in inflation and lower returns on savings. It has significantly cut the real incomes of savers, …

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How long will Mr Market’s Euphoria Last?

Mr Market has started 2013 in euphoric mood. The FTSE 100 has soared above 6100 for the first time in almost five years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is also close to a five-year high at 13,500. And elsewhere across the world stock markets are rising. So is Mr Market’s optimism justified? Only if you …

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The International Economic Outlook for 2013

As 2012 draws to a close, the financial press is dominated by the impending US “fiscal cliff”.  What seems remarkable in this age of 24/7 rolling news is that the crisis seems to have crept up on us without warning. Yet it was completely foreseeable. What is even more remarkable is that I have yet to read …

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QE Revisited – Where Has All the Money Gone?

Many thanks to those who attended my presentation at the City Book Fair in London yesterday, and particularly to the questionner who subjected my critique of Quantitative Easing to vigorous challenge. I welcome this, as it is vitally important that policy is based on a sound factual foundation. To summarise the exchange: My case against Quantitative Easing, set out in detail …

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Central Bankruptcy. Why Quantitative Easing could threaten the solvency of the central banks

The news this week that the US Federal Reserve is recommencing its quantitative easing programme on an open-ended basis, and that the European Central Bank is going to start buying the bonds of the peripheral Eurozone States to fulfil Mario Draghi’s commitment “to do whatever it takes” to save the Euro, call to mind an incident in my own investment career …

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