Category Archive: Quantitative easing

Feb 05

Chronicle of a death foretold. Five prophecies fulfilled and one yet to come to pass.

“The only relevant test of the validity of an hypothesis is comparison of its prediction with experience.” [Milton Friedman “The Methodology of Positive Economics” (1953)]. Five predictions of The Golden Guinea: Prediction 1: The Euro will inflict great economic damage on the nations that adopt it. “The case put by supporters of the Euro for …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/chronicle-of-a-death-foretold-five-prophecies-fulfilled-and-one-yet-to-come-to-pass/

Jan 01

Kondratieff, Schumpeter and the Outlook for 2015

Thirty years ago, my book The Age of illusions (1983) contained an exposition of the long waves in economic life, first identified by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff during the 1920s. Kondratieff’s thesis was that long waves lasting approximately half a century each occur in the economic activity of capitalist economies. These waves have two …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/kondratieff-schumpeter-and-the-outlook-for-2015/

Jul 03

The Outlook for the Bond Market

In my comment on April 3rd, “Are Sterling Bond Prices in a Bubble?”, I concluded that, “Quantitative easing has led to an artificial bond bubble. Investors should be very cautious in committing new funds to UK fixed-income securities. Their risk / return profile is distinctly unappealing – none moreso than gilts issued by the UK …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/the-outlook-for-the-bond-market/

May 16

Sir Mervyn King as Governor of the Bank of England – Marks out of 10

As Sir Mervyn King enters his final days as Governor of the Bank of England, the time is right to assess his overall record over the past 10 years. 1. Monetary policy before the credit crunch. The initial phase of his tenure, between 2003 and 2007, appeared at the time to be a period of …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/sir-mervyn-king-as-governor-of-the-bank-of-england-marks-out-of-10/

Apr 03

Are Sterling Bond Prices in a Bubble?

The news that Coutts, the private bank for high net worth clients, has just warned its clients against investing in high yield bonds brought to mind the analysis of a paper published many years ago in an Italian academic journal (“Dilemmas in Development Banking”, Savings and Development, Milan, 1985). Coutts is warning its clients against …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/are-sterling-bond-prices-in-a-bubble/

Feb 23

QE and the Downgrade of Britain’s Sovereign Debt

The news that Britain’s sovereign debt has been downgraded comes as no surprise to those of us who have followed the Bank of England’s monetary policies over recent years with growing bewilderment. The job of a Central Bank is to maintain monetary stability. It is not to print money. It is not to manipulate the …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/qe-and-the-downgrade-of-britains-sovereign-debt/

Feb 15

An “Expensive Experiment” – An End to QE in the UK?

Congratulations to the Treasury Accounts Committee, which in a trenchant critique has condemned quantitative easing as an “expensive experiment” which has failed to deliver any of its alleged benefits or to stimulate economic growth. It has resulted instead only in inflation and lower returns on savings. It has significantly cut the real incomes of savers, …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/an-end-to-qe-in-the-uk/

Dec 28

The International Economic Outlook for 2013

As 2012 draws to a close, the financial press is dominated by the impending US “fiscal cliff”.  What seems remarkable in this age of 24/7 rolling news is that the crisis seems to have crept up on us without warning. Yet it was completely foreseeable. What is even more remarkable is that I have yet to read …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/the-international-economic-outlook-for-2013/

Nov 14

QE Revisited – Where Has All the Money Gone?

Many thanks to those who attended my presentation at the City Book Fair in London yesterday, and particularly to the questionner who subjected my critique of Quantitative Easing to vigorous challenge. I welcome this, as it is vitally important that policy is based on a sound factual foundation. To summarise the exchange: My case against Quantitative Easing, set out in detail …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/qe-revisited-where-has-all-the-money-gone/

Nov 07

City Book Fair November 13th 2012 – Preview of My Presentation on the International Financial Crisis

The international financial crisis is evolving very much as foreseen in The Golden Guinea.  The International Financial Crisis 2007-2014: Causes, Consequences and Cures, I am grateful to the organisers of next week’s City Book Fair at the Bishopsgate Institute, London EC2, for giving me the opportunity to present my analysis and proposed strategy for how it might be …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/city-book-fair-november-13th-2012-preview-of-my-presentation-on-the-international-financial-crisis/

Older posts «