Category: Kondratieff

Jan 12

The Kondratieff Wave and the Bond Market

Following commentary over the past three months on the Kondratieff cycle, the question has been raised as to how an investor can tell whether financial markets are in the upswing or downswing phase of a long wave. During the upswing, private sector investment is strong and rising; share prices increase over time in real terms; …

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Nov 10

Schumpeter, Minsky and me: Long waves in British financial markets – Part 2

My analysis indicates that we are now in the downswing of the fifth long wave in British financial markets since the Industrial Revolution. The upswing ended with the international financial crisis of 2007–09, and one would expect that the downswing will endure for between 20 and 25 years and evolve in two phases, each lasting …

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Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/schumpeter-minsky-and-me-long-waves-in-british-financial-markets-part-2/

Oct 13

Palmerston, Kondratieff and Me. Long waves in British financial markets.

The Victorian statesman Lord Palmerston once observed of the Schleswig-Holstein question that it was so complex that only three men had ever fully understood it. One of them had gone mad, the second had since sadly died, and the third was himself – but it was so long ago that he had completely forgotten the …

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Jan 01

Kondratieff, Schumpeter and the Outlook for 2015

Thirty years ago, my book The Age of illusions (1983) contained an exposition of the long waves in economic life, first identified by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff during the 1920s. Kondratieff’s thesis was that long waves lasting approximately half a century each occur in the economic activity of capitalist economies. These waves have two …

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Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/kondratieff-schumpeter-and-the-outlook-for-2015/