Category: Greek exit from the euro

Jul 06

The Euro’s Existential Crisis

Extract from Chapter 11, ‘The Euro’s Existential Crisis’, in ‘The Golden Guinea. The International Financial Crisis, 2007-2014: Causes, Consequences and Cures’ (2012). Final section, ‘The Long Goodbye: Requiem for the Euro’. “The inevitable conclusion is that the Euro cannot survive indefinitely in its current form…..Rigidly fixing national currencies to a single currency at an overvalued …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/the-euros-existential-crisis/

Jun 25

Greek Tourism VAT and Greece’s future in the Eurozone

An article in today’s Times on Greek VAT on hospitality services entiled ‘Tourists will pay the price the Greek surrender on VAT’ reports that the rate of VAT on restaurants in Greece is likely to increase from 13% to 23%, while for hotels the rate will increase from 6.5% to 23% as part of a …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/greek-tourism-vat-and-greeces-future-in-the-eurozone/

Feb 05

Chronicle of a death foretold. Five prophecies fulfilled and one yet to come to pass.

“The only relevant test of the validity of an hypothesis is comparison of its prediction with experience.” [Milton Friedman “The Methodology of Positive Economics” (1953)]. Five predictions of The Golden Guinea: Prediction 1: The Euro will inflict great economic damage on the nations that adopt it. “The case put by supporters of the Euro for …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/chronicle-of-a-death-foretold-five-prophecies-fulfilled-and-one-yet-to-come-to-pass/

Jan 01

Kondratieff, Schumpeter and the Outlook for 2015

Thirty years ago, my book The Age of illusions (1983) contained an exposition of the long waves in economic life, first identified by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff during the 1920s. Kondratieff’s thesis was that long waves lasting approximately half a century each occur in the economic activity of capitalist economies. These waves have two …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/kondratieff-schumpeter-and-the-outlook-for-2015/