Category: Eurozone crisis

Jul 06

The Euro’s Existential Crisis

Extract from Chapter 11, ‘The Euro’s Existential Crisis’, in ‘The Golden Guinea. The International Financial Crisis, 2007-2014: Causes, Consequences and Cures’ (2012). Final section, ‘The Long Goodbye: Requiem for the Euro’. “The inevitable conclusion is that the Euro cannot survive indefinitely in its current form…..Rigidly fixing national currencies to a single currency at an overvalued …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/the-euros-existential-crisis/

Feb 05

Chronicle of a death foretold. Five prophecies fulfilled and one yet to come to pass.

“The only relevant test of the validity of an hypothesis is comparison of its prediction with experience.” [Milton Friedman “The Methodology of Positive Economics” (1953)]. Five predictions of The Golden Guinea: Prediction 1: The Euro will inflict great economic damage on the nations that adopt it. “The case put by supporters of the Euro for …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/chronicle-of-a-death-foretold-five-prophecies-fulfilled-and-one-yet-to-come-to-pass/

Mar 28

Sad Cyprus

As banks in Cyprus reopen for business after 10 days, it would appear that international currency and securities markets have taken the latest Eurozone crisis in their stride – “a tempest in a teacup” to quote Jamie Dimon on another occasion. But just as Mr Dimon’s observation failed to sweep JP Morgan’s problems under the …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/sad-cyprus/

Mar 26

The longer term consequences of the Cypriot banking crisis

As the Cypriot banking fiasco stumbles towards a resolution, some financial commentators have noted the comparatively modest impact it has had on bond markets elsewhere in the Eurozone. The conclusion they draw is that the situation in Cyprus poses no systemic threat to the euro and, once their banks reopen, things will continue much as …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/the-longer-term-consequences-of-the-cypriot-banking-crisis/

Mar 18

How long can Cyprus stay in the Eurozone?

The decision of the Government of Cyprus to impose a one-off levy of up to 10% on Cypriot bank deposits has sent shock waves across Europe. When Mario Draghi announced last year that the European Central Bank was committed to do everything in its power to stabilise the single currency, it was widely assumed that …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/how-long-can-cyprus-stay-in-the-eurozone/

Jan 31

Eurozone sovereign debt – dancing in a room where the clocks have no hands

The strong rally in world stock markets in January 2013 appears to be based on three premises. Firstly, that the Chinese economy has successfully avoided a “hard landing”. Secondly, the threat of a fiscal cliff in the USA has been averted. And thirdly, that the Eurozone crisis is now behind us. With these three impediments …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/eurozone-sovereign-debt-dancing-in-a-room-where-the-clocks-have-no-hands/

Jan 16

How long will Mr Market’s Euphoria Last?

Mr Market has started 2013 in euphoric mood. The FTSE 100 has soared above 6100 for the first time in almost five years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is also close to a five-year high at 13,500. And elsewhere across the world stock markets are rising. So is Mr Market’s optimism justified? Only if you …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/how-long-will-mr-markets-euphoria-last/

Dec 28

The International Economic Outlook for 2013

As 2012 draws to a close, the financial press is dominated by the impending US “fiscal cliff”.  What seems remarkable in this age of 24/7 rolling news is that the crisis seems to have crept up on us without warning. Yet it was completely foreseeable. What is even more remarkable is that I have yet to read …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/the-international-economic-outlook-for-2013/

Nov 28

Suspicious Minds – Is Mario Draghi leading the ECB into a Trap?

We’re caught in a trap I can’t walk out – Because I love you too much baby.   Elvis singing an anguished melody to a beloved partner with whom he is entangled in a difficult relationship? Or Mario Draghi serenading the euro? I was reminded about the lyrics of the classic Number One by an …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/suspicious-minds-is-mario-draghi-leading-the-ecb-into-a-trap/

Nov 07

City Book Fair November 13th 2012 – Preview of My Presentation on the International Financial Crisis

The international financial crisis is evolving very much as foreseen in The Golden Guinea.  The International Financial Crisis 2007-2014: Causes, Consequences and Cures, I am grateful to the organisers of next week’s City Book Fair at the Bishopsgate Institute, London EC2, for giving me the opportunity to present my analysis and proposed strategy for how it might be …

Continue reading »

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/city-book-fair-november-13th-2012-preview-of-my-presentation-on-the-international-financial-crisis/