Michael Nevin

Author's posts

The Brexit Negotiations: A Game Plan from Game Theory

The Prime Minister’s Brexit speech on January 17th marked the opening move in the negotiation process that will lead to the UK’s departure from European Union. The UK’s best strategy through these negotiations will depend upon how the other side responds. However, clues are offered by Game Theory, defined as “the study of models of …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/the-brexit-negotiations-a-game-plan-from-game-theory/

Solving the Mystery of the Brexit Bounce

In the run-up to the EU referendum on June 23rd, you could hardly move without hearing prophecies of doom from the Great and Good of the terrible consequences should Britain vote to leave. IMF Chief Christine Lagarde predicted the impact on the UK economy would range from “bad to very, very bad”. George Osborne, then …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/solving-the-mystery-of-the-brexit-bounce/

What happened to the UK Treasury’s neutrality?

The Treasury’s warning of the “permanent economic damage” that a vote to leave the EU would cause the UK reported in the lead article of today’s Financial Times continues a worrying trend, first seen in last year’s referendum on Scottish independence, towards the politicisation of the Treasury. Whatever one’s views on these referenda, it is …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/what-happened-to-the-uk-treasurys-neutrality/

Do high yield bonds outperform other asset classes? The race begins….

Over the course of the current (2015/16) financial year, I have built up a portfolio of 12 of the highest yielding Sterling fixed-income securities generally available to a retail investor. These securities are held in an individual savings account (Isa). This is important, as it means that all interest accrues free of tax. As at …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/do-high-yield-bonds-perform-other-asset-classes-the-race-begins/

Who’s afraid of the big bad bear?

An air of despondency hangs over the City of London, with security markets in steady decline, dragged down by the collapse in international commodity prices. In Aberdeen, Britain’s oil capital, the atmosphere is closer to panic. Property prices are tumbling, and many who want to sell are finding no buyers at all. In late January, …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/whos-afraid-of-the-big-bad-bear/

Charles Smith Remembered

I was saddened to learn of the sudden death earlier this week of Charles Smith following a suspected heart attack. Charles, a partner in Brodies LLP, was widely acknowledged as one of the foremost environmental and energy lawyers in Scotland, at a time when the regulatory framework applying to both was in a state of …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/charles-smith-remembered/

A Land Value Tax for Scotland

The devolution of greater financial powers to Scotland presents both a threat and an opportunity. The threat is that growth and productivity in the Scottish economy could be adversely affected if taxes are poorly designed or applied at higher rates than in England. This risk was highlighted by the Government’s proposals in late 2014 to …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/a-land-value-tax-for-scotland/

The Kondratieff Wave and the Bond Market

Following commentary over the past three months on the Kondratieff cycle, the question has been raised as to how an investor can tell whether financial markets are in the upswing or downswing phase of a long wave. During the upswing, private sector investment is strong and rising; share prices increase over time in real terms; …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/the-kondratieff-wave-and-the-bond-market/

Pricing Anomalies in the Fixed Income Market

By comparison with the market for equities, the London corporate bond market remains illiquid and imperfect. The LSE has done its best to improve matters by introducing the Order Book for Retail Bonds (ORB), publishing up-to-the-minute information on its platform on the volume and price of bonds traded, breaking news and financial results. But there …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/pricing-anomalies-in-the-fixed-income-market/

Schumpeter, Minsky and me: Long waves in British financial markets – Part 2

My analysis indicates that we are now in the downswing of the fifth long wave in British financial markets since the Industrial Revolution. The upswing ended with the international financial crisis of 2007–09, and one would expect that the downswing will endure for between 20 and 25 years and evolve in two phases, each lasting …

Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: http://www.goldenguinea.com/schumpeter-minsky-and-me-long-waves-in-british-financial-markets-part-2/